06. Februar 2012 
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Scotland house prices expected to rise in 2012
Nearly three in ten of those living in Scotland think that house prices will rise rather than fall in 2012, according to the latest Bank of Scotland Housing Market Confidence tracker. 28% of those questioned forecast that house prices across Scotland will increase over the next twelve months, more than the 24% that predict a price decline over the same period.
As a consequence, the headline House Price Outlook balance for Scotland has moved into positive territory with an overall balance score of +4 percentage points (28% minus 24%). This represents a marked improvement compared with the negative reading of -18 (17% expecting a rise minus 35% expecting a fall) recorded in October's survey.
However, the outlook for the housing market remains subdued. The majority think that any house price movement over the next twelve months will be relatively small with around two-thirds (64%) expecting any movement to be between +5% and -5%.
Scotland is the sixth – out of 11 - most optimistic UK location regarding house price movements in 2012. Londoners are the most bullish over the outlook for house prices with an overall net balance of +21, followed by the East Midlands (+18) and Yorkshire and Humber (+14). At the other end of the spectrum, the North East of England has the most negative outlook for house prices (-3).
Eight of the eleven UK regions tracked recorded a positive headline House Price Outlook balance (i.e. indicating that more people expect house prices to rise rather than fall). This contrasts sharply with October’s survey when just three regions had a positive headline balance.
*Net balance of the % of respondents that expect house prices to rise over the next 12 months compared to those that expect them to fall
Job worries and raising a deposit are the main hurdles to home buying Over half of those questioned identified concerns about job security (59%) and difficulties in raising a deposit (52%) as the main obstacles to buying a property in Scotland. Respondents also picked out household finances and the general availability of mortgages (both 36%) as major barriers to buying a property.
More think it’s a better time to buy than sell
Over half (57%) of those questioned think that it is currently a good time to buy, almost ten times the proportion thinking that it is a good time to sell (6%). Perceptions of the Scottish housing market as a better one for buyers than sellers partly reflects the dramatic improvement in home affordability over recent years. Recent research by Bank of Scotland revealed that mortgage payments for a new borrower in Scotland during the second half of 2011 were at their lowest as a proportion of disposable earnings for 9 years.
Nitesh Patel, housing economist at Bank of Scotland, commented, „The modest improvement in consumer confidence in the outlook for house prices reflects the resilience of the housing market in Scotland over recent months in the face of a weak economic recovery and the deterioration in the outlook for both Scotland and global economies.“
„Looking forward, we currently expect broad stability in house prices in 2012, although there remains much ambiguity around this given the considerable uncertainty regarding the prospects for the economy.“
The cost of renting is expected to continue to rise in 2012
Significantly more of those living in Scotland believe that private rents will rise than fall over the next 12 months. 73% predict that the cost of renting in the private sector will increase over the next twelve months, compared to just 1% who think that rents will fall.
As a consequence, the headline House Price Outlook balance for Scotland has moved into positive territory with an overall balance score of +4 percentage points (28% minus 24%). This represents a marked improvement compared with the negative reading of -18 (17% expecting a rise minus 35% expecting a fall) recorded in October's survey.
However, the outlook for the housing market remains subdued. The majority think that any house price movement over the next twelve months will be relatively small with around two-thirds (64%) expecting any movement to be between +5% and -5%.
Scotland is the sixth – out of 11 - most optimistic UK location regarding house price movements in 2012. Londoners are the most bullish over the outlook for house prices with an overall net balance of +21, followed by the East Midlands (+18) and Yorkshire and Humber (+14). At the other end of the spectrum, the North East of England has the most negative outlook for house prices (-3).
Eight of the eleven UK regions tracked recorded a positive headline House Price Outlook balance (i.e. indicating that more people expect house prices to rise rather than fall). This contrasts sharply with October’s survey when just three regions had a positive headline balance.
| Headline housing market outlook | |||||||
| Region | House price outlook (headline net balance*) in % | ||||||
| London | 21 | ||||||
| East Midlands | 18 | ||||||
| Yorkshire and Humber | 14 | ||||||
| East | 9 | ||||||
| West Midlands | 7 | ||||||
| Scotland | 4 | ||||||
| Wales | 4 | ||||||
| South East | 2 | ||||||
| North West | -1 | ||||||
| South West | -2 | ||||||
| North East | -3 | ||||||
| UK | 7 | ||||||
| Source: Bank of Scotland, Ipsos MORI | |||||||
*Net balance of the % of respondents that expect house prices to rise over the next 12 months compared to those that expect them to fall
Job worries and raising a deposit are the main hurdles to home buying Over half of those questioned identified concerns about job security (59%) and difficulties in raising a deposit (52%) as the main obstacles to buying a property in Scotland. Respondents also picked out household finances and the general availability of mortgages (both 36%) as major barriers to buying a property.
More think it’s a better time to buy than sell
Over half (57%) of those questioned think that it is currently a good time to buy, almost ten times the proportion thinking that it is a good time to sell (6%). Perceptions of the Scottish housing market as a better one for buyers than sellers partly reflects the dramatic improvement in home affordability over recent years. Recent research by Bank of Scotland revealed that mortgage payments for a new borrower in Scotland during the second half of 2011 were at their lowest as a proportion of disposable earnings for 9 years.
Nitesh Patel, housing economist at Bank of Scotland, commented, „The modest improvement in consumer confidence in the outlook for house prices reflects the resilience of the housing market in Scotland over recent months in the face of a weak economic recovery and the deterioration in the outlook for both Scotland and global economies.“
„Looking forward, we currently expect broad stability in house prices in 2012, although there remains much ambiguity around this given the considerable uncertainty regarding the prospects for the economy.“
The cost of renting is expected to continue to rise in 2012
Significantly more of those living in Scotland believe that private rents will rise than fall over the next 12 months. 73% predict that the cost of renting in the private sector will increase over the next twelve months, compared to just 1% who think that rents will fall.
