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05. Juni 2012 
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Real estate research reveals Portugal success at Euro 2012 likely ahead of the start of the tournament
Portugal, currently ranked 5th in world by FIFA, are predicted to win the forthcoming European football championship, according to property research from Jones Lang LaSalle. Despite being in Group B, the notorious “group of death” alongside Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark, analysis of European property metrics at the time of past tournaments indicate Portugal has a strong chance of performing well in the 2012 tournament, and may ultimately win the competition, with a narrow victory over Croatia in the final.
Based on assorted property market fundamentals that include investment returns, rental values and vacancy rates, perennial underperformers England are expected to survive until the semi-finals, alongside Russia.
Surprisingly, reigning European and World Cup champions Spain and tournament specialists Germany, both fancied to win the tournament, are not expected to survive past the group stage, and will be eliminated by outsiders who possess different property fundamentals.
Home advantage is also not predicted to be helpful this year. Co-hosts Poland and Ukraine, the lowest-ranked teams in the competition according to FIFA at 65th and 50th respectively, are not expected to survive the initial group stage.
Robert Stassen, Head of EMEA Capital Markets Research, Jones Lang LaSalle said:
“Whilst all eyes across the world will be on the football superstars like Ronaldo, Rooney and Robben, a closer look at property fundamentals in each country reveals some interesting patterns in past tournament results. This means we can translate property performance and forecast who will perform on the pitch. It might be pure fantasy football but it could help those trying to predict the results, and also demonstrates the importance in understanding real estate performance.”
Jones Lang LaSalle Euro 2012 predictions:
Group A - Historically, countries which have higher yields across industrial and logistics buildings have performed better and survived to make the knockout competition. With double digit prime yields for industrial property in Russia and increases in prime yields in Greece over the last 12 months, we expect Poland and the Czech Republic will lose out at this stage.
Group B - During recent European Championship tournaments, countries with higher office building vacancy rates have topped the group stages. Based on this trend with robust development pipelines and low levels of leasing transactions, Portugal and The Netherlands are expected to triumph over Denmark and Germany with vacancy rates of 12% and 17%, respectively compared with 10% in Denmark and 8% in Germany.
Group C - Looking back, countries with strong office capital values and rents, have performed best on the pitch. If this trend is maintained in 2012, Spain, currently top of FIFA’s world ranking would fail to qualify from their group. Croatia would top the group, with Italy taking second place despite recent match-fixing rumours circulating their national leagues and knocking out Ireland.
Based on assorted property market fundamentals that include investment returns, rental values and vacancy rates, perennial underperformers England are expected to survive until the semi-finals, alongside Russia.
Surprisingly, reigning European and World Cup champions Spain and tournament specialists Germany, both fancied to win the tournament, are not expected to survive past the group stage, and will be eliminated by outsiders who possess different property fundamentals.
Home advantage is also not predicted to be helpful this year. Co-hosts Poland and Ukraine, the lowest-ranked teams in the competition according to FIFA at 65th and 50th respectively, are not expected to survive the initial group stage.
Robert Stassen, Head of EMEA Capital Markets Research, Jones Lang LaSalle said:
“Whilst all eyes across the world will be on the football superstars like Ronaldo, Rooney and Robben, a closer look at property fundamentals in each country reveals some interesting patterns in past tournament results. This means we can translate property performance and forecast who will perform on the pitch. It might be pure fantasy football but it could help those trying to predict the results, and also demonstrates the importance in understanding real estate performance.”
Jones Lang LaSalle Euro 2012 predictions:
Group A - Historically, countries which have higher yields across industrial and logistics buildings have performed better and survived to make the knockout competition. With double digit prime yields for industrial property in Russia and increases in prime yields in Greece over the last 12 months, we expect Poland and the Czech Republic will lose out at this stage.
Group B - During recent European Championship tournaments, countries with higher office building vacancy rates have topped the group stages. Based on this trend with robust development pipelines and low levels of leasing transactions, Portugal and The Netherlands are expected to triumph over Denmark and Germany with vacancy rates of 12% and 17%, respectively compared with 10% in Denmark and 8% in Germany.
Group C - Looking back, countries with strong office capital values and rents, have performed best on the pitch. If this trend is maintained in 2012, Spain, currently top of FIFA’s world ranking would fail to qualify from their group. Croatia would top the group, with Italy taking second place despite recent match-fixing rumours circulating their national leagues and knocking out Ireland.
