13. September 2012 
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Polish Shopping Centres with positive growth outlook
According to the latest report by CBRE, two decades of dynamic development of the modern retail market in Poland have created a maturing landscape of diverse retail formats available in all major cities. A growing number of smaller towns are also aspiring for their first modern retail schemes. The only agglomeration where demand clearly exceeds supply is the capital city of Warsaw.
Karina Kreja, Associate Director, Research and Consultancy at CBRE Poland: “While Poland has so far been resilient to the prevailing European markets weakness, consumer demand is now slowing, with retail sales in Poland up by 6.9% year-on-year in July 2012, down from double-digit growth figures still being noted in early 2012. With tenants’ demand clearly easing, and overall vacancy rates on the increase, the Polish shopping centre market is entering the challenging period of a tenants’ market, when landlords will be forced to actively fight in order to attract new retailers.”
According to the Poland Retail Destinations report by CBRE, at the end of the first half of 2012, Poland had a total of 9.18 million m² of retail space in over 400 schemes, including shopping centres, factory outlets and retail parks. That translates into 240 m² of GLA per 1,000 residents on average. The modern retail network in Poland, also including quality space in city high streets, has become increasingly mature, and the development potential it now offers is rather selective. Shopping centre stock is steadily growing in Poland, with 650,000 m² of new space delivered in 2011, 620,000 sqm expected for 2012, and slightly more in 2013. Apart from standard shopping centres, factory outlet projects are again high on the developers’ agenda. Increasingly diversified retail formats also include small (under 5,000 m² of GLA) local shopping centres and convenience shopping centres emerging in many locations, and at the opposite end – the first fully modern vitkAc luxury department store opened at the end of 2011 in Warsaw.
Warsaw’s retail market remains demand driven
With 1.33 million m² of modern retail space, the Warsaw retail market is the largest in Poland but shows clear symptoms of undersupply. A major stock surge is expected in 2013, however, when a total of 74,000 m² of new GLA will be delivered in three new schemes: Auchan Łomianki, Factory Annopol outlet centre and Plac Unii, as well as one extension: Galeria Mokotów. Further development plans include new shopping centres in the districts of Białołęka and Wilanów. The Warsaw retail market remains demand driven, with vacancy rates currently at 1.6%. However, demand is strongest in the leading city centre schemes including Złote Tarasy, Galeria Mokotów and Arkadia, while in many schemes at the fringe of the city demand is easing, resulting in a decline of average rental levels. Warsaw is the most expensive location in Poland, with prime rents at about € 75 – 90/m²/month (for the best unit of 100 m², located in a prime shopping centre), while average rents are at € 30 – 40/m²/month.
Karina Kreja, Associate Director, Research and Consultancy at CBRE Poland: “While Poland has so far been resilient to the prevailing European markets weakness, consumer demand is now slowing, with retail sales in Poland up by 6.9% year-on-year in July 2012, down from double-digit growth figures still being noted in early 2012. With tenants’ demand clearly easing, and overall vacancy rates on the increase, the Polish shopping centre market is entering the challenging period of a tenants’ market, when landlords will be forced to actively fight in order to attract new retailers.”
According to the Poland Retail Destinations report by CBRE, at the end of the first half of 2012, Poland had a total of 9.18 million m² of retail space in over 400 schemes, including shopping centres, factory outlets and retail parks. That translates into 240 m² of GLA per 1,000 residents on average. The modern retail network in Poland, also including quality space in city high streets, has become increasingly mature, and the development potential it now offers is rather selective. Shopping centre stock is steadily growing in Poland, with 650,000 m² of new space delivered in 2011, 620,000 sqm expected for 2012, and slightly more in 2013. Apart from standard shopping centres, factory outlet projects are again high on the developers’ agenda. Increasingly diversified retail formats also include small (under 5,000 m² of GLA) local shopping centres and convenience shopping centres emerging in many locations, and at the opposite end – the first fully modern vitkAc luxury department store opened at the end of 2011 in Warsaw.
Warsaw’s retail market remains demand driven
With 1.33 million m² of modern retail space, the Warsaw retail market is the largest in Poland but shows clear symptoms of undersupply. A major stock surge is expected in 2013, however, when a total of 74,000 m² of new GLA will be delivered in three new schemes: Auchan Łomianki, Factory Annopol outlet centre and Plac Unii, as well as one extension: Galeria Mokotów. Further development plans include new shopping centres in the districts of Białołęka and Wilanów. The Warsaw retail market remains demand driven, with vacancy rates currently at 1.6%. However, demand is strongest in the leading city centre schemes including Złote Tarasy, Galeria Mokotów and Arkadia, while in many schemes at the fringe of the city demand is easing, resulting in a decline of average rental levels. Warsaw is the most expensive location in Poland, with prime rents at about € 75 – 90/m²/month (for the best unit of 100 m², located in a prime shopping centre), while average rents are at € 30 – 40/m²/month.
Fotos: CBRE, CBRE
