06. Februar 2012 
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Moscow warehouse market expects slow but stable growth
The key features of 2011 were low levels of vacancy and supply while rental rates recovered throughout the year, according to a new report from CBRE Russia Industrial Research. While warehouse projects were based on pre-let and build-to-suit formats in 2011, demand (in terms of tenant take-up) was strong for quality premises. As economic growth accelerated towards the end of 2011 so the warehouse sector saw higher levels of new delivery in Q4 than in previous analogous periods.
The volume of new delivery rose in 2011 from approximately 60.000 m² in H1 to 270.000 m² in H2. Projects were mainly located to the south, south-east and south-west parts of Moscow region. Nevertheless total delivery in 2011 was not as high as in pre-crisis years as developers and investors still perceive significant risks, mostly of all in connection with the global macro-economic situation rather than any Russia-specific issues.
Take-up in 2011 came mainly from retail, FMCG, logistics companies and from industrial sector companies, including Univeg, John Deere, Leroy Merlin. Demand from foreign companies came both from those expanding their existing business in Russia and from new entrants to the market. Russian companies were also active in 2011.
Strong take-up combined with a limited number of completions led to low pre-crisis vacancy level. In 1Q vacancy shrank from 7% to 3%, almost equal to the extremely low pre-crisis levels. After the high levels of vacancy seen in 2008 - 2009, the rate fell in 1Q 2010 for the first time since 3Q 2008 (in Moscow region). It is important to stress that at the end of 2009 it was approximately 16.9%.
Average rental rates grew continuously throughout the year from US$ 120 / m² / year to US$ 135 / m² / year in 3Q and 4Q. Asking rates were close to pre-crisis 2008 levels.
These factors will continue to increase number of projects in pipeline over the next 2 years. Developers have already announced several projects for 2013. However, these will be in the most popular format, namely pre-let and build-to-suit warehousing projects. Approximately 500,000 m² of new development will be delivered on the Moscow region market in 2012.
In 2012, rental rates will increase by 3-5% over the first 6 months, according to new figures released by CBRE, while vacancy will stay at approximately the same level.
Vasiliy Grigoriev, Analyst of Industrial Research CBRE in Russia comments: “In 2011 Moscow Region warehouse market demonstrated stable, but slow growth. During the year take-up for quality warehouse premises remained strong and supply was modest. Key market indicators (rental level, vacancy, etc.) almost reached pre-crisis values. During the next 12 months we expect an upturn in developers’ efforts, a number of large projects to enter the market, and the main trends to remain the same.”
The volume of new delivery rose in 2011 from approximately 60.000 m² in H1 to 270.000 m² in H2. Projects were mainly located to the south, south-east and south-west parts of Moscow region. Nevertheless total delivery in 2011 was not as high as in pre-crisis years as developers and investors still perceive significant risks, mostly of all in connection with the global macro-economic situation rather than any Russia-specific issues.
Take-up in 2011 came mainly from retail, FMCG, logistics companies and from industrial sector companies, including Univeg, John Deere, Leroy Merlin. Demand from foreign companies came both from those expanding their existing business in Russia and from new entrants to the market. Russian companies were also active in 2011.
Strong take-up combined with a limited number of completions led to low pre-crisis vacancy level. In 1Q vacancy shrank from 7% to 3%, almost equal to the extremely low pre-crisis levels. After the high levels of vacancy seen in 2008 - 2009, the rate fell in 1Q 2010 for the first time since 3Q 2008 (in Moscow region). It is important to stress that at the end of 2009 it was approximately 16.9%.
Average rental rates grew continuously throughout the year from US$ 120 / m² / year to US$ 135 / m² / year in 3Q and 4Q. Asking rates were close to pre-crisis 2008 levels.
These factors will continue to increase number of projects in pipeline over the next 2 years. Developers have already announced several projects for 2013. However, these will be in the most popular format, namely pre-let and build-to-suit warehousing projects. Approximately 500,000 m² of new development will be delivered on the Moscow region market in 2012.
In 2012, rental rates will increase by 3-5% over the first 6 months, according to new figures released by CBRE, while vacancy will stay at approximately the same level.
Vasiliy Grigoriev, Analyst of Industrial Research CBRE in Russia comments: “In 2011 Moscow Region warehouse market demonstrated stable, but slow growth. During the year take-up for quality warehouse premises remained strong and supply was modest. Key market indicators (rental level, vacancy, etc.) almost reached pre-crisis values. During the next 12 months we expect an upturn in developers’ efforts, a number of large projects to enter the market, and the main trends to remain the same.”
Fotos: CBRE, CBRE
